Two Experiments on the Psychology of Blackjack

Two Experiments on the Psychology of Blackjack

Blackjack is a game of skill where the object is to beat the dealer by getting a hand value closer to 21 than theirs. The players can hit (ask for another card), stand (remain at their current hand value) or double down (the bet is doubled but only one more card will be drawn). The player can also take an insurance bet which pays out 1:1 if the dealer has a blackjack and loses if they do not.

The game begins with the dealer dealing two cards to each player. If the first two cards give a total of 21 or less, the player wins the round. If the player exceeds 21 or busts, they lose their wager and the hand is out of play. The dealer will then draw a card and continue to draw until they have a hand value of 17 or more. Players can win their bet back if they beat the dealer’s hand or if the dealer has a blackjack and they have a blackjack (Ace + card whose value is 10) which pays out 3 to 2.

In Study 1, participants played 60 rounds of blackjack under conditions manipulated to manipulate unjustified confidence in their ability to play the game. The results showed that, independently of actual knowledge, unjustified confidence was associated with several psychological variables including outcome expectations and anxiety levels. It was also related to behavioral variables such as risk taking and information search and consideration.

To reduce confounding factors, participants were only recruited as part of an undergraduate psychology course. The course offered the opportunity for students to fulfill a requirement in their degree program by participating in the experiments. In addition to playing a number of rounds of blackjack, participants were given a sheet with hints for better play and instructed to follow the hints as they played.

The studies were approved by Wake Forest’s Institutional Review Board and participants gave their informed consent before participating. The raw data for these studies are available upon request from the authors.

ES designed and conducted the studies and assisted in the manuscript writing, AP contributed to the study design, AH performed the data analyses and RS wrote the software for the studies. All authors reviewed the final version of the article.

All authors are members of the Center for Research on Self-Control at Wake Forest University and have made a contribution to this work in terms of research design, analysis, interpretation of results and/or writing of the manuscript. The authors would like to thank the participants of the studies. Their participation is an important part of the research and without their help the study would not have been possible. The research was funded by grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse and the United States Department of Health and Human Services. The authors are grateful to the NIH for their support of this research. This research was published in Psychological Science, the highest impact journal in the field of psychology.